Confronting Models with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data: A Statistical Comparison of Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer Radiance Spectra and Global Climate Models Output
نویسنده
چکیده
Forecasts of decadal climate change at subcontinental scales made by global climate models (GCMs) are currently too uncertain to be useful to policy makers. For example, the forecasts of global mean surface temperatures in the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B scenario show an agreement across 15 models of about ±0.75 K in warming of the global mean temperature after 100 yearr. At the subcontinental scale, the disagreement in surface temperatures at high latitudes can range as large 15 K in extreme cases for the 100-year forecast. Forecasts of precipitation and extreme weather show even more variation for these IPCC emission scenarios.
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